Welcome to Orbis Exchange Group’s market update.
5th-11th April 2021
Where you will be able to keep up to date with all the latest changes in the currency market.
Great British Pound
Yesterday we saw a “Covid status certification” scheme being developed. This would record if someone had been vaccinated, recently tested negative or had natural immunity (had already been infected by the virus).
36 million people have been vaccinated
The government will continue to trial ways to hold large events and gatherings safely. There will be an app in which the NHS is working on for the public to demonstrate their covid status.
The latest statistics show that over 36 million people have been vaccinated. There are discussions of the UK’s ‘green list’ of countries for safe foreign travel. Meaning UK citizens could be going on holidays as soon as next month.
Manchester Airports Group see the potential for flights to go to more than 130 countries if case rates remain similar or of course get better.
Economy better off than original estimates.
The GBP/EUR rate saw a spike form the recent release of UK GDP, which saw the economy better off than original estimates. However, this will still be the worst year recorded.
Urging that the lockdown be lifted much earlier.
Moreover, the pound has started this week strong as 40 MPs have put forward a proposal for Boris Johnson urging that the lockdown be lifted much earlier.
All vulnerable groups have nearly received both shots of their vaccines. But it seems that the government is ignoring these statistics to fulfil their vaccine orders by supplying lower aged groups now.
Last week German employment figures dropped by nearly 10,000 jobs, which is a lot more than expected which is devasting for Europe as they are the largest economy.
This piece of data will only worsen as the manufacturing sector has new fears over job culls at companies such as Volkswagen due to cost cutting.
European Central Bank to relax after recent bond yield spikes
Equally, Inflation in the Eurozone dipped to 0.9% from 1.1% despite higher fuel prices. The numbers allow the European Central Bank to relax after recent bond yield spikes. Despite all the impressive news for the UK as Boris Johnson is sticking to his roadmap like “glue”, the Eurozone are still struggling as they were sluggish with vaccination rollouts since the start of the year.
GBP/EUR has a quiet week ahead on the data side of things and the pair will be massively driven by political headlines and the UK’s actions and further plans to open the economy.
Over the past week we have seen the USD strengthen to the strongest position against the Euro since November. Following Joe Biden’s election, we saw the US Dollar weaken significantly with the promise of a large stimulus package involving large amounts of quantitative easing.
Every adult expected to be offered a vaccination by the end of May
Since, Joe Biden has over-delivered on vaccination rollout across the United States, with every adult expected to be offered a vaccination by the end of May. Florida has been the first state to announce they will not apply vaccine passports, and others are expected to follow in the coming weeks, indicating the U.S economy is primed to open to a level well sustainable economic growth is achievable.
The strong rate against the Euro is in part reflected by the EU’s comparative failure on vaccinations, but we have also seen the US Dollar strengthen against the Pound by over 3% since February.
Over the next week we will see the Federal Open Market Committee meet to discuss the Economic conditions the U.S Market finds itself in following the large second wave of coronavirus we have seen in the past months. Their reflections will indicate the future strength of the economy and in-turn the U.S Dollar.
Vaccinations statistics and announcements from Joe Biden.
We also are expecting the global taskforce for travel to report back on the 12th of April, with the U.S’ high level of vaccinations, it is expected they could be one of the first countries to reverse travel restrictions, which will boost economic growth so we will keep an eye on these events as well as vaccinations statistics and announcements from Joe Biden.